Banks and Blockchain: Opportunity or Death Blow?

For the vast majority of banks, it is 5 to 12. This is more true of European financial institutions than any other. In addition to a dwindling interest margin, low equity ratio and high macroeconomic risks, it is the outdated IT infrastructures and a lack of innovative strength that are causing concern about long-term viability. What measures are necessary to increase the probability of survival and what role blockchain technology plays in this.

In order to prevent the European economy from falling apart and sovereign defaults, the European Central Bank is forced to keep interest rates down – or at least to guarantee a negative real interest rate. As a result, the ECB is not only provoking an investment crisis, since there are hardly any government bonds with positive interest rates, but it is also depressing the interest margin of credit institutions. Savings banks and Volksbanks in particular, which often generate more than three quarters of their income by granting loans, are increasingly deprived of their business basis.

But even private banks such as Commerzbank or Deutsche Bank find it difficult to compensate for a falling interest margin through other branches of business such as the securities business. Especially since margins are coming under increasing pressure here too. Be it through increasingly low-margin financial products such as ETFs, increasing competition from the Bitcoin Code sector or a bond business that pays less and less interest. Large-scale job cuts are the result.

If there is then macroeconomic turbulence that causes high loan defaults, the already low equity ratio of many institutions quickly reaches its limits. But the situation is not only serious from a macroeconomic point of view.

Technical change: More empty phrases than understanding

It seems that many banks are still not aware that they are facing the greatest structural change of all time. What the internet did to the music industry or the publishing industry is now threatening the financial sector. Instead of the pure information and communication level as was previously the case in the Internet economy, it is now about new infrastructures for our money and our assets.

Specifically, the three most important core functions of a bank are affected: payment transactions, credit and custody. In addition, there are other functions such as the securities business, whose infrastructures will also be fundamentally changed in this decade.

E-Euro and Facebook’s Diem need new infrastructures

Specifically, with the switch to digital central bank money, the infrastructure will also be adapted to the new medium token. Both a digital euro in the sense of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and in private form in the form of a stablecoin must then be embedded in new and programmable infrastructures . Every bank has to cope with blockchain-like infrastructures – even if they have little to do with an open blockchain à la Bitcoin. Be it for payment transactions or lending and securities business.

Ultimately, this change also entails a departure from the previous document requirement. Fewer and fewer securities will be processed via the old infrastructure in the next few years.

Are our authorities more innovative than our banks?

Only in December did the federal government take the first step with its law on electronic securities. In the first quarter of 2021, fully digital bonds should be exchanged before the law via tokens and blockchain registers. In the long term, this means that the securities account of the future will also need a wallet function in order to be able to store digital securities (security tokens). Equivalent changes through token-related dematerialization and automation, in which smart contracts replace manual processes, are only a matter of time. A small study by the FinTechs Finoa and Cashlink had already shown how great the savings potential is .

With the increasing regulatory framework, the way will be cleared for a token and blockchain-based financial economy. At the moment it does not look as if the current market shares will remain with the previously dominant banks. There are individual payment traffic pilots with stablecoins and at Commerzbank part of the securities processing takes place via a distributed ledger infrastructure. But that is not enough to keep up with the innovation dynamics from the FinTechs and blockchain sector.

New business models for banks, no ifs or buts

A consequence of this technological transformation process are also new business models. Be it the staking of cryptocurrencies or the digital securities issuance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Every universal bank that is serious about digital innovation – that means more than cool innovation hubs in Berlin – should already be able to present blockchain projects for each of the above-mentioned core areas of a bank, at least in cooperation with a FinTech.

Just as a Deutsche Telekom is already experimenting with staking , a Deutsche Bank must also ask itself how staking can complement the investment business and how the corporate customer business can open up new sources of income through the tokenization of GmbH shares. Even if staking and tokenization are still practically irrelevant economically in 2021, everything indicates that this will change in this decade. The same applies to so-called crypto lending, i.e. decentralized loans, the volume of which is also still irrelevant, but this could also change in the next few years.

Everyone should consider the development of Bitcoin, which a few years ago was also economically irrelevant and infrastructurally undeveloped. Today, however, it has fought for a place in the traditional financial market. The newer crypto phenomena like staking or crypto lending are where Bitcoin was a few years ago, in 2013 or 2014.

Central meets decentralized

In addition to the classic CeFi offers, i.e. financial services that are provided centrally by an intermediary, the DeFi area will also continue to develop. These decentralized financial services will not replace the centrally organized banking business anytime soon, but they will complement them. Specifically, it is to be expected that market shares will be transferred to decentralized financial protocols.

If there were a certain willingness to disrupt, banks could also develop their own decentralized protocols to help shape standards and participate in the new value-added infrastructure. Even at the risk of attacking your own value chains, this proactive addition to the existing business would massively increase the future probability of survival. There is a merger between traditional banking and the crypto economy. The earlier you understand this as a bank, the sooner you should be able to maintain market shares and save jobs.

Bitcoin stijgt naar $ 25.000, omdat Coinbase aangeeft dat het publiek wil gaan. RT’s Boom Bust onderzoekt de bewegingen in cryptocurrency

Bitcoin bereikte zijn nieuwe recordhoogte en brak boven $ 24.000, terwijl ’s werelds nummer één cryptocurrency zijn rally voortzet in het weekend voor Kerstmis.

De cryptocurrency eindigde zaterdag op $ 24.122, voordat hij zich terugtrok tot ongeveer $ 23.978, een stijging van bijna 5,5 procent op een dag, volgens de CoinDesk-index

Door de sterke stijging is de stijging sinds het begin van het jaar 225 procent.

Ondertussen zei de prominente cryptocurrency-makelaardij Coinbase dat het papierwerk had ingediend bij de Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), waardoor de weg werd vrijgemaakt voor een eventuele beursintroductie (IPO).

Bitcoin zou $ 400.000 waard moeten zijn op basis van zijn schaarste – Guggenheim CIO

Maar aangezien de oorspronkelijke basis van cryptocurrency was om iedereen financiële vrijheid te bieden en te ontsnappen aan de traditionele beperkingen van de banksector, kan de beweging van Coinbase naar Wall Street een aantal dramatische veranderingen in de markt oproepen.

Christy Ai, op RT’s Boom Bust, onderzoekt of investeerders zullen uitbetalen na deze spil, weg van alles waar de industrie voor staat.

NEM (XEM) price analysis: jump to $ 0.30

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The price of the NEM (XEM) against the US dollar may rise to $0.30 in the short term if bulls recover amid a broader recovery in the altcoin market.

The price of XEM jumped to a monthly high of $0.28 after an impressive 51% last week. As seen on the price charts below, the bulls appear to be in command and may rise further despite a reversal to lows of $0.23.

The outlook, therefore, suggests that the XEM will have to recover as it did last week to hit the $0.30 mark. Over the past seven days, the XEM has outperformed Aave (38%), Synthetix (23%), Compound (23%) and yearn.finance (20%).

At the time of writing, the XEM was trading around $0.24, over 35% green on the weekly chart.

XEM/USD
The XEM posted incredible gains last week and could rise further if the bulls broke above a major resistance area which resulted in a drop to lows of $0.23.

If the bulls exceed $0.26, the overall bullish momentum in the market may help catapult the currency’s price to the $0.28 demand barrier. Above this, the buying pressure may push the price of the XEM to $0.30 or higher.

But while buyers target $0.30, sellers may have other ideas. As shown on the daily chart below, the bulls will likely have to struggle with downward pressure. The outlook is due to the selling signal that flashed in the daily period through the Sequential TD indicator. The graph shows an eight green candle, which means that if validated, it can confirm a short-term bearish outlook.

The technical framework also shows the RSI suggesting a potential slowdown for the XEM/USD pair. While the bulls remain in control as the indicator trends within overbought territory, their downward trajectory suggests that the bulls may be weakening.

If the NEM currency price hits another drop in the next few days, the main support levels in the daily period are $0.23, $0.21 and the simple 50-day moving average is $0.14.

XEM/USD 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView

On the 4-hour chart, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from a $0.26 high to $0.23 low provides an immediate barrier at $0.258. Above this level, a new test of $0.28 will open a possible run to the mentioned target.

On the downside, the 50-SMA ($0.21) provides support, with the difference between this and 100-SMA ($0.18) and 200-SMA ($0.15) suggesting that bulls are covered to absorb short-term falls.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

CBDCs protect privacy and break data monopolies

Central banks and corporations are racing for digital payment infrastructures. A blog post by the US Federal Reserve argues why a state digital currency (CBDC) would be a better solution.

Has the cash had its day? Surveyprove that in the wake of the corona pandemic, Germans are also increasingly paying digitally. This global trend can be explained by increased hygiene and comfort. Data protectionists are still alarmed, because cashless payments create an unimagined amount of data for corporations such as PayPal , Visa, Google and Facebook . Could privacy be better protected with central bank digital currency (CBDC)?

At least that’s what Rodney Garrett and Michael Lee claim in a blog postfrom November 23rd. The economist from the University of California at Santa Barbara and the researcher from the New York arm of the US Federal Reserve discuss a jointly published paper. The two describe CBDCs as “inexpensive, privacy-protecting electronic means of payment.” On the other hand, they reject Bitcoin and Co. because of high transaction costs.

Private payment platforms and the data monopoly

Garett and Lee first ask about the effects of digital payment infrastructure in private hands . As is usual in economic research, the considerations of the two authors are based on a number of model assumptions. They assume that companies use data to gain a competitive advantage and that consumers choose between different payment models based on the price. As digital payments promise user data, companies would create incentives for their use. As a consequence, according to the model, a data monopoly is forming on the market:

A company that gains small information advantage early on will aggressively price to increase its share of consumer data and monopolize the market in the long run. In such a market, we find that the monopoly controls the vast majority of the data and is able to offer a product that is far superior to its competitors‘ products.

What is beneficial for this company turns out to be a disadvantage for end users. Because only a fraction of the added value that has been generated by their data actually reaches them. With a CBDC, however, the calculation is different.

CBDC: When digital infrastructure meets cash

Digital central bank money goes hand in hand with the same convenience for consumers as private payment platforms. Still, a Garrett and Lee model CBDC offers the same wealth of privacy as traditional paper.

This gives end users another benefit. Because if private providers want to access consumer data, they have to make payment processing cheaper via their own platforms than via a CBDC. It is irrelevant whether consumers actually make use of the digital cash. The mere presence of a CBDC creates incentives for remuneration for disclosing one’s own data.

The reasoning of the two researchers is based on the assumption that central banks are not after profit and therefore have no use for user data. CBDCs could therefore help to save the anonymity of cash into the digital age. This conclusion may be correct for liberal democracies. In the case of China and comparable autocracies, however, state digital currencies in particular open up frightening monitoring and control options.

Visa CEO kijkt vooruit naar de wereld van Crypto

De CEO van Visa is optimistisch dat er in de toekomst meer digitale valuta op het Visa-netwerk zullen draaien.

Visa-CEO Alfred Kelly zei dat hij een groot potentieel ziet in cryptocurrencies

Digitale activa zullen erg handig zijn in landen met een groot aantal mensen zonder bankrekening, voegde hij eraan toe.

Het kan echter enkele jaren duren voordat Bitcoin Era de opkomende technologie volledig omarmt.

Alfred Kelly, CEO van betalingsgigant Visa, zei dat zijn bedrijf de komende jaren een groot potentieel ziet in digitale valuta, vooral in opkomende markten met een aanzienlijk aantal mensen zonder bankrekening, volgens het rapport van CNBC dat op vrijdag werd gepubliceerd.

„Crypto is een zich ontwikkelend onderdeel van betalingen in de wereld“, zei Kelly, en voegde eraan toe: „Uiteindelijk zouden we digitale valuta’s op het Visa-netwerk regelmatiger kunnen zien draaien,“ zij het „over een aantal jaren.“

Het bedrijf heeft onlangs Plaid overgenomen, een bedrijf dat 11.000 financiële instellingen in de VS en 2.700 fintech-ontwikkelaars helpt om gegevens uit te wisselen

„We zijn een netwerk en proberen steeds meer een netwerk van netwerken te worden,“ merkte Kelly op, en legde uit: „Plaid is gewoon op zijn eenvoudigste niveau een ander netwerk waarvan we denken dat het past in de wens om meerdere netwerken te hebben waarop we informatie en geld over de hele wereld. “

De CEO van Visa voegde eraan toe dat een van de grootste voordelen van crypto ligt bij de 1,7 miljard mensen zonder bankrekening over de hele wereld die geen toegang hebben tot traditionele rekeningen.

„Er zijn 1,7 miljard mensen op aarde waarvan we denken dat ze niet in een regulier banksysteem zitten in welk land ze ook wonen, inclusief sommigen hier in de VS“, merkte Kelly op en voegde eraan toe: „We staan ​​zeker open voor elk voertuig. dat helpt om geld over de hele wereld te verplaatsen. We willen er middenin zitten. “

Tegelijkertijd is Visa van plan om samen te werken met centrale banken als – of wanneer – zij hun eigen digitale valuta van de centrale bank (CBDC’s) gaan uitgeven. Hoewel de meeste van deze projecten zich nog in een vroeg ontwikkelingsstadium bevinden, merkte Kelly op, verwacht het bedrijf dat deze inspanningen in de toekomst zullen worden gerealiseerd.

„We blijven verwachten samen te werken met centrale banken over de hele wereld bij het ontwikkelen van digitale valuta voor de toekomst“, zei de CEO van Visa. En het ziet ernaar uit dat dat bij velen van hen zal gebeuren .

Bitcoin skifter før de avregner over $ 16K igjen

Bitcoin-prisen skjøt forbi 16 000 dollar-nivået for et par dager siden. Siden har det lagt til mer enn $ 200 til prisen, og det ser ut til at mange analytikere er overbevist om at $ 20.000 – eiendelens heltidshøyde som opprinnelig ble oppnådd i desember 2017 – kunne bli slått igjen før årets slutt.

Bitcoin har beveget seg litt de siste få dagene

Imidlertid ser det ut som bitcoinprisen kan ha gått gjennom noen opp og ned bevegelser før den endelig gjenopprettet og handlet for det den for tiden sitter på. Valutaen steg til $ 16.200, men falt deretter ned til $ 15.600 kort. Derfra skjøt det opp til $ 15,900 før det endelig slo seg tilbake over $ 16,000-merket.

Dette antyder at flyttingen ikke er en fluk, og at valutaen potensielt opplever en liten smak av motstand her og der. Imidlertid viser eiendelen sin styrke og motstandskraft og tillater ikke at dråpene er permanente. Valutaen har beveget seg fremover i $ 16.000-serien, og for det meste blir den der.

Denis Vinokourov – forskningssjef for den Londonbaserte digitale valuta-virksomheten Bequant – forklarte i et nylig intervju:

Det er noe overbelastning mellom $ 16,170 og $ 17,150-sonen (basert på prishandling i 2017 og 2018), men til slutt ønsker markedene å teste heltidshøyder og motstand før det ser meningsløst ut, basert på den nåværende risikofølelsen. . Selv om oppsiden kan ha avtatt noe, peker den pågående økningen i futures åpen interesse, sammen med å gjenopprette bitcoin-hash-rate og det faktum at det amerikanske valget er ute av veien, ytterligere gevinster for bitcoin og det bredere markedet som helhet.

Han mener at konsolideringene de siste dagene er sunne tegn på at bitcoin gjør akkurat hva det burde være. Jason Lau – COO for kryptovalutautveksling OK Coin – forklarte videre at bitcoin også er på et solid sted, og at okserallyet sannsynligvis vil fortsette på lang sikt. Han forklarer:

Bitcoin nettopp ryddet $ 16.000 for første gang på tre år, og bekreftet den eksisterende hausseoppgangen. Det har vært sterkt, med seks sammenhengende positive ukentlige avslutninger. Sterk institusjonell interesse (BTC-futures åpen interesse er på høyeste nivå) og innkommende detaljstrøm (PayPal åpnet kryptokjøp til alle amerikanske brukere i dag) gir fortsatt drivstoff til dette rallyet. Med minimal motstand fram til $ 20K, er det vanskelig å fortelle hvordan de neste dagene vil handle inn mot årsskiftet, men tegnene er positive.

Hva konsentrerer handelsmenn seg om?

Tim Enneking – administrerende direktør for Digital Capital Management – foreslo at markedsdemografien rundt BTC og krypto har endret seg, og kommenterer:

Den gjennomsnittlige BTC-handelsprofilen endres hver 12.-18. Måned eller så. Profilen har nå blitt mye mer institusjonell, mer konsentrert og mer fokusert på ‘hodling’ snarere enn handel.

BTC and Biden supply: 5 things to keep in mind about Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin is preparing for battle at the beginning of the Democratic transition in the United States and the spread of coronavirus blockages elsewhere.

Bitcoin (BTC) is beginning what will likely be a busy week for the markets as the United States begins its two-month presidential transition.

After Joe Biden was declared the projected winner of the U.S. presidential election over the weekend, Bitcoin Freedom fell but managed to avoid major losses, what’s next?

Cointelegraph takes a look at the factors that will influence BTC’s price action over the next week.
US Election Frenzy Starts to Bite

Attention remains firmly fixed on Washington as the aftermath of a highly controversial election begins to unfold.

Experts have warned that market volatility is almost guaranteed once the outcome occurs. Since this happened over the weekend, the opening of Wall St. on Monday will be a source of interest for market participants.

At the close of this edition, Japan led the way in profits, with its stock market reaching a 29-year high in what the press is calling the „Biden Bounce“.

Binance’s DeFi index falls 60% while Bitcoin eclipses the altcoins

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has stopped at the continuation of last week’s gains and at one point reached $14,400, $1,590 less than its recent peak. Since then, BTC/USD has rebounded considerably, reaching $15,250 at the close of this issue.

Acting President Donald Trump has promised to challenge the vote recount and could cause more problems for Biden, leading to confusion about the policy, which could stir up feelings.

However, analysts often argue that in the long run, Bitcoin and gold as a safe haven will emerge, regardless of which candidate leads the U.S. in the future. The reason, among other things, is inflation.

As Cointelegraph reported, a speech last week by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saw demands for greater financial stimulus to enter the U.S. economy, increasing debt and downgrading the dollar.

„Bitcoin is the dominant crypto currency network, designed to house the ideal safe-haven asset and preserve monetary power for long periods of time without loss of power,“ summarized Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, in a tweet on Monday.

„That makes #BTC the solution to the problem of every investor’s reserve value. Few understand this.“

Coronavirus Chaos Drowning Europe

Accompanying the consequences of the elections is the continuing confusion over the handling of the Coronavirus by the nation states.

Europe and the US have recently diverged on this issue, with the former succumbing to a wave of new blocking measures that have been met with considerable public rejection.

After showing buoyant recovery statistics for the third quarter, many governments will soon paint another totally less attractive picture of their economies for the fourth quarter, as economic activity plunges for the second time in 2020.

The Fed’s call for more stimulus is „key to buying Bitcoin,“ says Winklevoss

This opens up the possibility of history repeating itself for Bitcoiners. After March’s cross asset drop and first closings, Bitcoin recovered from $3,600 to five figures in less than two months.

While the governments themselves were repeating the controversial responses to the virus, analysts were already predicting a strong year for Bitcoin in 2021. Among them, as Cointelegraph reported, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and Gemini Exchange co-founder Tyler Winklevoss predicted a new all-time record for BTC in the first quarter of next year.
Fear and Greed Index hits danger zone

However, in terms of current investor sentiment, warning bells are ringing as Bitcoin remains above $15,000.

According to the Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment using a basket of factors, a correction is more than overdue.

Compiled as a score of 100, the index reached its highest reading since June 2019 on Monday, when Bitcoin reached its annual high of $13,800.

By comparison, two weeks ago, the index was measuring below 60, firmly „neutral“ territory, before the latest price spike raised optimism.

The closer your score gets to 100, the more likely it is that the market will correct itself thanks to a wave of sales, dragging the price down.
Historical Fear and Greed Index Chart.

Los precios de Bitcoin se mueven bruscamente a medida que la volatilidad de la BTC cae a un mínimo de 16 meses.

La volatilidad de Bitcoin ha caído a un mínimo de 16 meses, lo que indica que se avecina un movimiento brusco en el BTC.

El interés abierto agregado de las opciones de Bitcoin (BTC) ha aumentado hasta los 2.000 millones de dólares, lo que supone un 13% por debajo del máximo histórico. Aunque el interés abierto sigue estando muy concentrado en la bolsa de Deribit, la Bolsa Mercantil de Chicago (CME) también ha alcanzado los 300 millones de dólares.

En términos sencillos, los contratos de derivados de opciones permiten a los inversores comprar protección, ya sea al alza (opciones de compra) o a la baja (opciones de venta). Aunque existen algunas estrategias más complejas, la mera existencia de mercados de opciones líquidas es un indicador positivo.

Por ejemplo, los contratos de derivados permiten a los mineros estabilizar sus ingresos, que están vinculados al precio de una criptodivisa. Las empresas de arbitraje y de creación de mercados también utilizan estos instrumentos para cubrir sus operaciones. En última instancia, los mercados de gran liquidez atraen a participantes más grandes y aumentan su eficiencia.

La volatilidad implícita es una medida útil y primaria que puede extraerse del precio de las opciones. Siempre que los comerciantes perciban un mayor riesgo de mayores oscilaciones de los precios, el indicador se desplazará hacia arriba. Lo contrario ocurre durante los períodos en que el precio es plano o si se espera que las oscilaciones de precios sean más leves.

La volatilidad se conoce comúnmente como un indicador de miedo, pero se trata principalmente de una métrica retrospectiva. El pico de 2019 que se observa en el gráfico anterior coincidió con el pico de 13.880 dólares del 26 de junio, seguido de un repentino descenso de 1.400 dólares. El pico de volatilidad más reciente, de marzo de 2020, se produjo después de que se produjera un descenso del 50% en sólo 8 horas.

Los indicadores señalan un cambio de precio salvaje en la fabricación

Los períodos de baja volatilidad son catalizadores de movimientos de precios más sustanciales, ya que señalan que los creadores de mercado y las mesas de arbitraje están dispuestos a vender protección con primas más bajas.

Esto se debe a que el aumento del interés abierto de los derivados conduce a liquidaciones más extensas cuando se produce un cambio repentino de precios.

Los inversionistas deben entonces dirigir su atención a los mercados de futuros para evaluar si se está gestando una posible tormenta. El aumento del interés abierto denota ya sea un mayor número de participantes en el mercado o que se están creando posiciones más grandes.

Los actuales 4.200 millones de dólares de interés abierto agregado podrían ser modestos comparados con el máximo de agosto de 5.700 millones de dólares, pero siguen siendo relevantes.

Un par de razones podrían estar frenando una cifra mayor, incluyendo los actuales cargos de BitMEX CFTC y el hacking de 150 millones de dólares de KuCoin.

La alta volatilidad es otro factor crítico que frena el interés abierto en los derivados de Bitcoin.

A pesar de que el 57% es la cifra más baja de los últimos 16 meses, sigue representando una prima considerable, especialmente para las opciones a largo plazo. Tanto las opciones como los futuros tienen mucha sinergia, ya que las estrategias más avanzadas combinan ambos mercados.

Un comprador que apuesta por una huelga de 14.000 dólares para el vencimiento del 21 de marzo en 160 días debe pagar una prima del 10%. Por lo tanto, el precio al vencimiento debe llegar a 15.165 dólares o un 34% por encima de los 11.300 dólares actuales.

Como comparación, las acciones de Apple (AAPL) tienen una volatilidad de 3 meses del 41%. Aunque superior al 29% del S&P 500, el impacto a largo plazo frente al 47% de Bitcoin Up tiene efectos sorprendentes. La misma subida del 34% para una opción de compra en marzo de 2021 para las acciones de AAPL tiene una prima del 2,7%.

Para poner las cosas en perspectiva, si una acción de APPL tuviera un precio de 11.300 dólares, esta opción de marzo de 2021 costaría 308 dólares. Mientras tanto, la de BTC se cotiza a 1.150 dólares, lo que es casi cuatro veces más cara.

¿Apostando por 20 mil dólares? Las opciones podrían no ser la mejor manera

Aunque llevar una posición de futuros perpetuos durante períodos más largos tiene un costo implícito, no ha sido una carga. Esto se debe a que la tasa de financiación de los futuros perpetuos se cobra normalmente cada 8 horas.

La tasa de financiación ha estado oscilando entre positiva y negativa durante los últimos dos meses. Esto da como resultado un impacto neto neutral en los compradores (largos) y vendedores cortos que podrían haber estado llevando posiciones abiertas.

Debido a su alta volatilidad inherente, las opciones de Bitcoin podrían no ser la forma óptima de estructurar las apuestas apalancadas. El mismo coste de 1.150 dólares de la opción de marzo de 2021 podría utilizarse para adquirir futuros de Bitcoin utilizando un apalancamiento de 4. Esto produciría una ganancia de 1.570$ (136%) una vez que Bitcoin alcance el mismo 34% de subida necesario para el punto de equilibrio de la opción.

El ejemplo anterior no invalida el uso de opciones, especialmente cuando se construyen estrategias que incluyen la venta de opciones de compra o venta. Hay que tener en cuenta que las opciones tienen un vencimiento establecido. Por lo tanto, si el rango de precio deseado se produce sólo al día siguiente, no produce ninguna ganancia.

Para los toros de ahí fuera, a menos que haya un rango de precios y un marco temporal específico en mente, parece que por ahora la mejor solución es apegarse a los futuros perpetuos.

Analysten wetten auf den Bitcoin (BTC)-Preis nach einem Anstieg um 13.000 $, ein Indikator gibt dieses klare Kursziel vor Bitcoin hat sich zwischen $12.700 und $13.037 konsolidiert

Die erste und nach Marktkapitalisierung größte Kryptowährung Bitcoin (BTC) kletterte auf neue Jahreshöchststände von 13.250 USD.

Das Verbleiben von Bitcoin bei 13.000 $ war jedoch aufgrund der Preisablehnung nur von kurzer Dauer. Furchtbare Unterstützung hielt den Verkaufsdruck in Schach, während der endgültige Anstieg auf 14.000 $ ins Schwarze getroffen wurde.

14.000 $ wurden in der Vergangenheit als eine große Widerstandsmarke für BTC Mitte 2009 verzeichnet. Im Juni 2019, als BTC 13.970 $ erreichte, fiel es innerhalb von 24 Stunden sofort wieder auf Tiefststände von 10.525 $ zurück. In den darauf folgenden 21 Tagen fiel der BTC auf 9.252 $ und verzeichnete damit einen Rückgang um 35%. Es heißt, es gebe wenig Widerstand zwischen 14.000 $ und 20.000 $, da der vorherige Bullenzyklus im Jahr 2017 abrupt endete, aber das bedeutet nicht, dass die BTC glatt auf einen neuen ATH zusteuert.

Nach dem historischen Anstieg über 13.000 $ am 22. Oktober konsolidierte sich Bitcoin zwischen 12.700 $ und 13.037 $. Einige Analysten sind der Meinung, dass BTC einen kurzfristigen Rückzug vor einem Anstieg erleben könnte, während Denis Vinokourov von der Krypto-Börse Bequant der Meinung ist, dass zumindest kurzfristig eine Konsolidierung zu einem gesünderen Aufwärtstrend für BTC führen würde und nicht zu einem exponentiellen Anstieg. Dies sagte er:

„Insgesamt nähern sich die Märkte einem Gebiet, das nicht viel Preisfindungspotenzial bietet, aber für gesunde Märkte würde man eine Konsolidierung im Gegensatz zu einem exponentiellen Einwegverkehr erwarten.

BTC/USD-Tages-Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) wird derzeit bei 12.974 $ gehandelt.
Analysten wetten auf den Bitcoin (BTC)-Preis nach einem Anstieg von 13.000 $

Es ist wahrscheinlich, dass die BTC nach einer kurzen Konsolidierungsphase eine Fortsetzung ihrer anhaltenden Rallye erleben würde. Die Daten von Skew deuten darauf hin, dass alle Bitcoin-Märkte, einschließlich Spot-, Derivate- und Optionsmärkte, nach den PayPal-Nachrichten eine hohe Nachfrage aufweisen.

Analysten gehen davon aus, dass der nächste Konsolidierungsbereich der BTC in den kommenden Monaten vor dem nächsten Ausbruch zwischen 12.500 und 13.500 $ liegen wird.

Preiswahrscheinlichkeitsdiagramm für Bitcoin-Optionen.

Jüngste Daten von Skew deuten darauf hin, dass die BTC mit einer Wette von 7% bis Ende 2020 ihre 20.000 $ ATH erreichen oder sogar übertreffen wird. 11% wetteten um $18.000, während 14% angaben, dass Bitcoin bis März 2021 $20.000 zurückerhalten hätte, die Wetten für Juni 2021 lagen bei 18%.

Eine Gruppe von Analysten glaubt jedoch, dass Bitcoin in den kommenden Tagen und Wochen seinen Aufstieg nach oben fortsetzen wird, insbesondere aufgrund der Fundamentaldaten. Das sagte Vinny Lingham, CEO von Civic und Partner bei Multicoin Capital:

„So bullish bin ich seit 2016 nicht mehr auf #Bitcoin gewesen. Makroereignisse bereiten uns auf einen weiteren Bullenlauf vor. BTC könnte sich in den nächsten 12 Monaten um das 3- bis 5-fache steigern, kein Zufall, dass dieser Zeitraum während der US-Wahlen liegt. Erwarten Sie eine hohe Volatilität, aber BTC wird in diesem Zeitraum wahrscheinlich nicht unter $ 12.000 fallen“.

Und angesichts der anhaltenden zinsbullischen Anzeichen für Bitcoin (BTC) in der Handelskette und der Marktdaten glauben führende Analysten, dass eine Rallye im Stil von 2017 bevorstehen könnte.

Laut einem kürzlich erschienenen Bericht eines Online-Vergleichsressourcen-Finders, der 30 Krypto-Experten umfasst, wird der Bitcoin-Preis bis zum Ende des Jahres wahrscheinlich 14.283 $ erreichen. Während ihre durchschnittliche Prognose bis Ende 2020 bei 14.283 $ liegt, deuten andere Vorhersagen auf einen viel höheren Preis hin, z.B. der Entwickler des S2F-Modells PlanB.
Ein Indikator zeigt dieses klare Preisziel an!

Ein Analyst sieht BTC in der ersten Phase eines inversen Head & Shoulder-Durchbruchs, was dazu führen könnte, dass sein Preis in den kommenden Sitzungen 19.030 $ erreichen könnte. Der Inverse Head & Shoulder ist ein zinsbullischer Indikator, der eine Umkehr des Abwärtstrends vorhersagt.

Der Analyst merkte an, dass Bitcoin nun 13.829 $ anstrebt, woraufhin es in Richtung der 16.510 $-Marke steigen könnte. Dieser Schritt würde BTC näher an die Struktur für 2017 bei 19.030 $ bringen. Dies könnte in gewisser Weise eine weitere Bestätigung dafür sein, dass eine Rallye im Stil von 2017 bevorstehen könnte.

The US Federal Reserve warns of the „tragic“ consequences of an unsupported crisis. What are the consequences?

While Democrats and Republicans continue their political confrontation, the economy hangs by a thread.

The Republicans in the US Congress have decided to block the new round of stimulus, defending a policy of austerity in the midst of a major crisis. In other words, there will be no more aid cheques for those most in need. The liberators are celebrating, because the government finally decided to do nothing during the crisis. The longed-for „temporary pain“ has arrived.

Donald Trump wanted a generous stimulus package before the elections, but his party turned its back on him. The Republicans attribute the decision to a matter of doctrine. Well, conservative doctrine is not that complicated. In fact, it is extremely simple. Government subsidies hurt people’s morale because they promote laziness. They also increase the power of government, which is, by nature, oppressive. The individual must seek self-sufficiency and not depend on external aid.

According to conservative ideology, crises should not be managed. The market regulates itself and solves all its problems. Conservatives do not deny the existence of crises. However, they accept „temporary pain“ as a necessary evil that promotes market efficiency. It is something like „What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger“.

Of course, this is what the doctrine says. And many believe that this is a sacred truth. In fact, all these ideas are very popular in the crypto community. Many bitconers, in fact, have adopted the libertarian philosophy in economic matters and spread it as a gospel. Since the beginning of the crisis, many in the crypto community have criticised the stimuli as an abuse of power and an artificial devaluation of the dollar. I assume that now the Conservatives (Bitcoiner and not bitcoiners) are happy with this victory in Congress.

However, many economists are very concerned about the tragic consequences of abandoning the population at this difficult time. One of the mourners is Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve. Powell has the numbers in his hand and knows full well that this conservative doctrine is a disaster for the economy. Of course there is also a humanitarian issue here. At the moment many families are in a desperate situation and a cheque could be a lifeline. Many studies have shown that unemployment benefits do not encourage laziness. This idea is a myth. The truth is that timely aid reduces poverty. From an economic point of view, helping is productive.

From a macroeconomic point of view, doing nothing is also very harmful. The truth is that monetary expansion stimulates economic growth. On the other hand, deflation makes the currency too strong and generates unemployment. In other words, stimuli are needed. Otherwise, this crisis could last for many more years. That is basic economic knowledge. However, the Conservatives continue with the same old story. This is a doctrine that has not changed in centuries. In fact, this doctrine is more a dogma than an economic policy supported by economic studies.

However, the Republicans insinuate that placing the issue of stimulus in limbo is primarily a matter of doctrine. But that is hard to believe with an election just weeks away and the Democratic candidate winning the polls by several points. This is not like the usual ideological struggle. Firstly, until a few days ago, President Trump himself was very interested in the approval of this package. And the Republicans always approve a stimulus package when they feel pressure from the public. This could be an indication that this blockade is a vulgar political sabotage.

The Republicans are acting like a wounded animal. And now Trump has admitted that his party has turned its back on him. But he cannot accept defeat because it would be seen as a weakness. So he has joined the blockade. In other words, „there will be no discussion about stimuli until after the elections“. This means that this setback is political. And, apparently, it is temporary. If Trump wins the election, surely the stimuli will eventually be approved. And if Biden wins, they will also pass.

The Federal Reserve, in theory, should stay away from politics. Similarly, it cannot afford to fall into dogma, because it must be an essentially scientific body. This, in practice, is not easy to achieve, but at least an attempt is made. However, the Fed is a very limited institution. It has only a very limited number of tools at its disposal. It can, for example, buy financial instruments, but, beyond that, it cannot do much more. In other words, the effectiveness of the Fed depends on the cooperation of the government. The Treasury Department is of vital importance.

The Government is indeed a political institution that is constantly affected by the political climate. Here the „science“ of the Fed is not very relevant. Party passions, ideologies, myths and public opinion play a central role. This could explain the irrationality of some decisions.

At the moment, there are families with young children who do not have the means to pay the rent, or put food on the table. Meanwhile, discussion of the aid package is at a standstill thanks to conservative congressmen. The Fed can buy bonds from Apple and Amazon, but cannot send a check to families in need. That is the role of the government. Temporary pain“ is defended as a necessary evil. Hard currency is spoken of as the great solution. But pain is not the same for everyone.

Frankly, something in this whole story does not add up. Checks to billionaires are always good for the economy, but checks to the neediest are subject to the doctrine of austerity. The consequences of not passing a new stimulus package are clear. Without new stimulus, this crisis will be longer and more painful. The Conservatives will get their long-awaited strong dollar, but it will come at a cost. The cost will be economic decline, deflation, unemployment and poverty.

The good news is that after the elections the discussions will resume. And the stimuli will eventually be approved. There are doctrines that are always better in opposition. In opposition, everything is perfect and true. But if we apply them, they will lead to disaster. In the words of Jerome Powell, there are doctrines that have „tragic consequences“.